“Turkey is galloping towards an
authoritarian regime full speed ahead.”
How many Armenians in America understand the danger of
Turkey’s deteriorating internal situation coupled with its apparent willingness
to risk a confrontation with Russia?
Flanked by hostile regimes in Turkey and Azerbaijan, the
Republic of Armenia is facing mounting concerns and outright threats.
Developments have been so rapid that I’m having trouble keeping up, and I
really am trying.
In case you’ve been busy trying to figure out if that’s a
presidential debate or Saturday Night Live on your TV, here are some highlights
from the past few months:
*After ignoring America’s repeated pleas, Turkey finally agreed
to join the fight against the Islamic State. It then attacked the Kurds in Syria who were fighting the Islamic State.
*Turkey also renewed attacks on Kurds in its own
country—Kurds who are in fact Turkish citizens—using the pretext of a
separatist uprising. The crackdown is centered in eastern provinces where Kurds
are a majority in former Armenian population centers. News photos from Diyarbakir (my father’s birthplace) show a smog of tear gas settling over rubble. The city’s historic Armenian Catholic church was among
those damaged.
*Turkey’s incursion in Syria has brought it dangerously close to Russian forces conducting air strikes against rebels. The Russians support the government of
Bashar Assad, who provides Russia with its only naval port on the Mediterranean.
Turkey wants Assad and the Kurds out of its way. So far, there have been no
direct clashes with the Russians (there's currently a fragile cease-fire), but there’s widespread doubt this can
continue. All this comes while Putin continues to seethe over Turkey’s downing
of a Russian fighter jet in November.
*Making
all this worse, Turkey is convulsing over a series of bombings and terror
attacks in Istanbul and elsewhere that have brought tourism to a standstill. Responsibility
for the turmoil has been split between Kurds and ISIS, but many observers blame
government provocation for the action of Kurdish militants. The government also can't escape blame for the ISIS attacks, as it was crucial in abetting the
terrorist organization’s rise by allowing it to recruit in Turkey and giving it
border access as its fighters moved into Iraq.
*The
Erdogan government has reacted to both the turmoil and widespread domestic criticism by
tightening its already firm grip on the press. Last week, authorities seized
the nation’s most widely read newspaper, Zaman, and replaced the editors with
government trustees. Crowds chanting in support of free speech were dispersed
by riot police firing tear gas (see the photo at the top of this column). “The crackdown on expression comes amid a
growing sense that Turkey, once seen as a bastion of stability in the region,
is being enveloped by instability,” the New York Times reported. The Times
story included these chilling words from journalist Asli Aydintasbas, who lost
her column in the Milliyet newspaper last year under government pressure: “This
pattern is appalling, and Turkey is galloping towards an authoritarian regime
full speed ahead.”
*Remarkably,
the Erdogan government has managed to escape serious criticism from the West and has even drawn praise from Germany.
Publicly at least, America continues to entertain the fantasy that Turkey is an
ally that shares our democratic values. Turkey, meanwhile, has taken in as many
as two million refugees from Syria and elsewhere in the roiling Middle East but
many have used it as a transit point in making their way to Europe. The
refugees left behind make valuable bargaining chips: Europe doesn’t want them,
and is willing to overlook Turkey’s transgressions if it will keep them away.
What’s
most troubling is that Turkey’s behavior seems increasingly irrational and self-defeating,
which could lead to greater repression and aggression. The Washington Post
offered this observation from Soli Ozel, professor of international
relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University:
“Turkey now stands completely
isolated, trapped in a maze of quandaries that are partly of its own making. It has so alienated everyone
it cannot convince anyone to do anything. It is a country whose words no longer
carry any weight. It bluffs but does not deliver. It cannot protect its vital
interests, and it is at odds with everyone, including its allies.”
The
pressing question for Armenia is whether those allies will fight on Turkey’s
side if it goads Russia into war. That’s clearly what Erdogan hopes, although
it’s frightening to think he’d take the risk.
Turkey
has been a member of NATO since 1949, back when we worried that the Soviet
Union would see it as an easy target. The treaty pledges every NATO member to
defend any other member against an attack. But it also obligates each member to
promote peaceful relations and settle any disputes by peaceful means. It’s hard
to argue that Turkey hasn’t repeatedly violated those terms.
I
continue to believe Armenia’s smartest defensive move—genius, really—lies in
out-sourcing border patrols to the Russians. Turkey can’t cross the border
without tangling with the biggest boy on the block. But Turkey is reportedly
building new military bases near the Armenian border in Georgia and Azerbaijan,
a sign that it may be willing to test Putin’s patience as well as America’s
allegiance.
Russia,
meanwhile, has shipped Armenia a fresh supply of fighter jets, missiles and Russian support troops. If that’s sounds comforting, consider what happened the last
time the Russians rode to Armenia’s rescue.
The first Republic surrendered to the Soviets in 1920 in
return for Russia’s promise to protect its territory. Soon after occupying the
capital, the Russians turned over about 80 percent of that territory—and the
surviving Armenians who lived there— to the Turks and Azeris.
You don’t have to go back that far for more sobering
reminders that Russia always hedges its bets. It has provided more than
three-quarters of the weapons for Azerbaijan's armed forces, which have stepped up sniper attacks and raids on Karabagh in violation of the cease-fire there.
In sum, it’s a dangerous and unpredictable situation
changing so rapidly it’s hard to keep track of.
I’ve been paying
even closer attention since a friend forwarded information the other day on how
Armenians in the diaspora can join the homeland’s army in the event of war. That
got my attention, although luckily for all concerned I’m about 30 years and many
pounds past being any use in that regard.
What
raised my initial question about the awareness of other Armenian Americans is
that I’ve heard friends say, “Don’t worry, Putin has Armenia’s back.” Or,
more disturbingly, “Putin is Armenia’s friend.”
There’s an awful lot I don’t
know about world affairs but I’m certain of this:
Mr. Putin is nobody’s friend.
He is a Russian nationalist who will fiercely defend his own
turf with no particular regard for anyone else’s. If you doubt that, ask a
Ukrainian. Then ask yourself why Putin would feel greater affection for
Armenians than for a people who share his Slavic roots and Orthodox religion.
This does not make him an enemy, but he’s an ally to be wary
of. Put it this way: He wouldn’t necessarily be your first choice if you wanted to give a neighbor a spare key to your house. Of course, that’s assuming you had a choice of good
neighbors to rely on.
Unfortunately, Armenia doesn’t.
